Editor’s Note: Enjoy 15% off our NEW NBC Sports EDGE+ Subscription this holiday season and get every tool (Fantasy, DFS & Betting) for every game at a great low price. Use promo code HOLIDAY15 at checkout. Click here to Buy Now.
It’s the first college basketball card of 2022 and we have a strong slate for Saturday. When the calendar flips to January, we start focusing on conference matchups. Today we have two conference games where I think there is some value on one team. Let’s kick off the new year right with two best bets for Saturday!
Odds are opening line courtesy of PointsBet
Creighton Bluejays at Marquette Golden Eagles (+1.5)
Creighton is a team I really like for next season. This is a young Bluejays squad that’s loaded with talent. I’m a bit surprised that Creighton has started the year off 9-3 but keep in mind, the Bluejays have only played one true road game. And that game was at Nebraska in Creighton’s home state.
Marquette started the year off strong but has since dropped three straight and four of five. While that looks bad, Marquette has played the 17th toughest schedule in college basketball and its losses have come against Saint Bonaventure, Wisconsin, UCLA, Xavier, and UConn. All five of those teams rank in KenPom’s Top 70.
Key Metric: Creighton’s Ball Security
To be honest, there aren’t a lot of metrics that favor Marquette in this matchup. This is more of a spot play for me but one area where Marquette should have an advantage is with its ball pressure. Shaka Smart’s team is going to try to create turnovers that lead to easy buckets.
Creighton has had issues with ball security, ranking 258th in turnover percentage. That will be a big factor in this matchup because Marquette does a good job of converting turnovers into points, ranking 109th in potential quick points scored off steals and 124th in defensive field goal attempt rate.
Also, Creighton isn’t a very deep team, getting just 26.8 percent of its minutes from the bench. That ranks 275th in the country. If Marquette can play this game at its pace, look for the Bluejays to wear down in the second half. Creighton played one Top 100 team this year that really likes to push the pace in Colorado State and got blown out on a neutral court.
What I’m looking at here is a Creighton team that ranks 307th in experience playing just their second true road game in front of what will be the most raucous crowd its seen all season. Marquette’s ball pressure and the presence of 6-7 forward Justin Lewis (15.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG) in the paint should present matchup problems for Creighton on the road.
The Golden Eagles opened as an underdog but I won’t be surprised if they are small favorites by the time you read this article. I’d bet Marquette up to -2.
Pick: Marquette +1.5
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-9.5)
North Texas started the year off slowly after losing three key contributors from last season’s NCAA Tournament team that upset Purdue. The Mean Green began 2-3 but have since won five straight with impressive victories over Drake, UMass, and Wichita State.
North Texas’ calling card is defense, just like it’s always been under head coach Grant McCasland. The Mean Green rank 46th in defensive efficiency and have held their last five opponents to under 60 points.
Rice is 7-4 on the season but has beaten up on weaker competition. The Owls’ seven wins came against teams outside KenPom’s Top 200. Meanwhile, Rice’s four losses were all versus teams that rank 192nd or better with three coming by double-digits.
Key Metrics: Three-point shooting and turnover percentage
Rice lives and dies by the three-point shot. The Owls rank 13th in three-point scoring rate and ninth in three-point percentage. Over 41 percent of the Owls’ points come from beyond the arc. Guards Carl Pierre (15.2 PPG) and Travis Evee (15.1 PPG) lead the Rice offense with both sharpshooters hitting over 44 percent from three-point range.
On paper, this is an awful matchup for a team that depends so much on three-point scoring. North Texas fields one of the top perimeter defenses in college basketball. The Mean Green give up just 23.3 percent (25th best) of opponent’s points from three and hold teams to only 28.8 percent (36th best) from beyond the arc.
Another key factor in this game will be turnovers. Rice turns the ball over at an alarming rate, ranking 280th in turnover percentage. Meanwhile, North Texas ranks Top 50 in creating turnovers. Rice’s turnovers also usually lead to points for the other team. Rice ranks 331st in potential quick points off steals, while North Texas’ defense ranks 88th in that category and averages 11.5 steals per game (52nd best), according to Haslametrics.
North Texas is starting to round into form after early losses to Buffalo, Kansas, and Miami FL. This is a tough matchup on the road for a Rice offense that’s so dependent on the three-point shot. I make North Texas -12 in this matchup. I’d play the Mean Green up to -11.
Pick: North Texas -9.5
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
