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Conference play is hitting full swing as we approach 2022. On Wednesday, there are multiple key conference matchups, headlined by Tennessee-Alabama and LSU-Auburn in the SEC. I have a play on one of those games included in my best bets.
Odds courtesy of PointsBet
Tennessee Volunteers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-2)
Alabama hasn’t looked good in its last three games. They lost to Memphis on the road, survived in a close win over Jacksonville State, and suffered a one-point loss to Davidson. However, I believe now is the time to jump back on the Crimson Tide’s bandwagon.
Alabama played Gonzaga, Houston, and Memphis in a 10-day span. Those were all big, emotional games and that was coming off playing three times in three days at the ESPN Events Invitational. What I saw in Alabama’s last couple of games was a tired basketball team. The Crimson Tide usually play with their hair on fire. I didn’t see that same type of intensity against Jacksonville State and Davidson.
Alabama had eight days off to recharge the batteries and I think we’ll see a much different team at home on Wednesday for their SEC opener versus Tennessee. Let’s not forget this is the same squad that scored back-to-back wins over Gonzaga and Houston thanks to arguably the most talented backcourt in college basketball with Jaden Shackelford, Jahvon Quinerly, and Keon Ellis. The trio combines to average 43.9 points per game.
Tennessee just scored an impressive win over Arizona, but that was at home. I’m still not sold on this team away from Thompson Boling Arena. The Volunteers have already faced two of KenPom’s Top 20 teams (Villanova, Texas Tech) away from home and lost both games.
Key Metric: Tempo
Both of these teams like to play at a faster pace and that favors Alabama. When the Crimson Tide can get out and run with their guards, they are really tough to beat. Just ask Gonzaga who tried to play that game with Alabama and gave up 91 points. And that’s a Zags team that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency.
Tennessee can grind it out but so far this year they have opted to play at a faster pace, ranking 76th in tempo. Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, ranking 33rd in tempo. Metrics love the Vols - they rank second in defensive efficiency - but I need to see their guards play well in a hostile environment before fully buying into Tennessee.
If Alabama can make shots early and get Tennessee to play fast, I like them to win this game comfortably. I’ll back the rejuvenated Tide as short home favorites. I hit the opening line at -2 but would play Alabama up to -3.
Pick: Alabama -2
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Utah State Aggies (-13) at Air Force Falcons
Utah State is a team I’ve had a pretty good beat on so far this year. In my first article for NBC Sports Edge, I took Iowa -4 over the Aggies in an easy win for the Hawkeyes, but Air Force doesn’t match up with Utah State nearly as well.
The Falcons are a perfect 4-0 at home but three of those wins came against teams (Army, Idaho State, Denver) that rank 269th or worse on KenPom. The other win was over Texas Southern. Utah State is obviously a step up from those teams and the Aggies already have five wins away from home this season.
The reason Iowa gave Utah State so many problems is because of Keegan Murray. The 6-11 forward scored 35 points on 11-of-12 shooting. The Aggies can be pushed around in the paint by bigger frontlines. That won’t be a concern against Air Force’s guard-oriented lineup that features just two players 6-8 or taller. Look for Utah State star forward Justin Bean (19.9 PPG, 10.4 RPG) to dominate in the paint.
Key Metric: Three-point scoring rate
Utah State has a lot of advantages offensively but the biggest is three-point shooting. The Aggies rank 10th in the country in three-point field goal percentage and 53rd in three-point scoring rate. Utah State features four players who shoot 37.9 percent or better from beyond the arc. This kind of offense is bad news for an Air Force team that ranks 200th in three-point field goal percentage versus the average opponent by Haslametrics.
Another thing to watch for in this game is points off turnovers. Air Force can be sloppy with the basketball, ranking 348th in turnover percentage and 312th in potential quick points allowed off of steals, according to Haslametrics.
Air Force is much tougher at home than on the road but this is just an awful matchup against a Utah State squad that holds a big edge on offense, rebounding, and turnovers. Plus, the Aggies have already shown they can win away from home against good competition with victories over Richmond, New Mexico State, Oklahoma, and Boise State.
I make Utah State -15 here, so grab the Aggies up to -14.
Pick: Utah State -13
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