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College Basketball Bets: Baylor (-4.5) vs MSU, Gonzaga (-7.5) vs Duke

Kendall Brown

Kendall Brown

Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

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Baylor (-4.5) vs. Michigan State: O/U 139.5

I almost bet Michigan State yesterday, and I regretted it as they pulled out the +125 upset over UConn, 64-60.

Baylor ranks sixth in the nation for offensive (114.6) and defensive adjusted efficiency (88.6). The Bears have one of the countries best defensive turnover percentages (28.5%, seventh) and come in shooting and defending the two-pointer well.

Michigan State has the second-overall ranked defensive efficiency (86.8) and 56th-ranked offense (107.7), which should be the difference. Baylor’s offense plays at a similar pace to Michigan State’s but shoots much better.

The Bears are hitting the two at 54.2% (64th) and the three at 34.8% on the season (127th). The Spartans are hitting 50.2% (147th) from two and 32.7% from deep (187th).

Michigan State has played some tough defenses, such as UConn, Loyola Chicago and Kansas. This season, the Spartans are 4-2 ATS (66.7%) with three covers in the past four games (5-1 on ML).

Baylor has won every game by eight or more points, including VCU, Arizona State and Stanford over the past three games.

The Bears covered three straight until pushing versus Arizona State and failing to cover against VCU. They are 3-2-1 ATS (60%) and 6-0 on the ML.

Baylor has won and covered four straight games against the Big Ten Conference, per NBC’s Edge Finder. Baylor has also covered and won four straight as the favorite.

The Bears are 7-3 ATS and on the ML in the last 10 games versus Big Ten opponents (70%).

Baylor vs BIG 10

Baylor vs BIG 10

Versus the Big 12, Michigan State is 4-6 ATS and on the ML (40%), losing and failing to cover in five out of the previous six meetings.

MSU has failed to cover in four straight as the underdog.

msu VS big 12

msu VS big 12

Fade Sparty and back the Bears. I would play Baylor out to -6.

Pick: Baylor -4.5 (1u)

Gonzaga (-7.5) vs. Duke O/U 155.5

Gonzaga takes on another top team in the country when they face the Duke Blue Devils at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Gonzaga has covered three straight games and four of the past five on the season. The Bulldogs are 15-13 ATS (53.3%) in the regular season since the start of the 2020-21 season last year and 30-0 on the ML (100%).

The Bulldogs are 3-2 ATS (66.7%) and 4-1 on the ML (80%) in the previous five games against the ACC, losing to UNC in 2018. Gonzaga was won three straight against the ACC.

Gonzaga

Gonzaga

According to NBC’s Edge Finder, the Blue Devils are 11-17 ATS (39.2%) in the regular season since the start of last season. As an underdog, Duke is 1-3 ATS and on the ML in that span (25%).

Duke ATS

Duke ATS

Duke is not on the same planet as Gonzaga, and the talent difference will be obvious. If we compare Duke to Texas or UCLA, I do not think there is a comparison as I would much rather back the Longhorns and Bruins against the Bulldogs.

Duke played Kentucky in the season-opener, but since then, Duke has yet to play anyone. Duke has played Army, Campbell, Gardner Webb, Lafayette and The Citadel over the last five games.

The Blue Devils bring back one of the most inexperienced teams in the country at 330th in experience and 235th in minute continuity.

Gonzaga is not much better, but bring back the veteran leadership of Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard, who is enough versus most opponents.

The Bulldogs rank top seven in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, in addition to No. 1 in two-point percentage 67.2% and third in offensive block percentage (3%). I do not see Duke slowing down Gonzaga’s offense, especially Timme, Nembhard and freshman Chet Holmgren.

Duke has a trio of its own, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach. However, I do not see those three averaging 50-plus points against Gonzaga, and they will need others to step up versus the No. 1 team in the country.

Back Gonzaga to cover the -7.5 and parlay the Baylor and Gonzaga ML for -101 odds.

I would play Gonzaga out to -8.5 or -9.

Pick: Gonzaga -7.5 (1u), Gonzaga and Baylor ML Parlay (1u)

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