Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the A-10 Championship Game between the VCU Rams and Dayton Flyers for a chance at the big dance.
Dayton vs. VCU (-1.5): O/U 124.5
Today is the day! One of these two A-10 teams will make the NCAA Tournament, but I believe contrary to popular opinion that VCU should be in the big dance regardless.
However, the fact is both teams have to win and will play like it. This is the third meeting between the two teams and they split the series with VCU winning 63-62 at Dayton and Dayton winning 62-58 at VCU.
In road and neutral court games, Dayton is 8-9 and own a top 30 defense but struggles to force turnovers (15.8%, 284th) something VCU excels in anywhere but especially on the road (22.8%, 12th).
The Flyers also struggle from the free-throw line (70.5%, 201st) which could come into play in a physical and pivotal game. In the past two games, Dayton has gone 13-of-44 from three (29.5%) and turned the ball over 21 times compared to VCU who went 18-of-40 from three (45%) and forced 27 turnovers
VCU has won 21 out of the past 24 games and own an impressive road and neutral court record of 11-4, winning 10-straight. The Rams are also 55-11 on the ML as a favorite in the past two seasons.
The Rams last lost came against the Flyers, so there is some revenge on the mind of VCU. Dayton has had the more favorable road to the A-10 Championship but VCU has proved themselves over and over.
I got the Rams at the opening odds of -115 and would go out to -140. The line is currently -125 and -130 most shops. I have tickets on VCU to win the A-10 at +200 and +220, so let’s cash out!
Pick: VCU ML (1u)
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