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Loyola MD (-2) at Lehigh: O/U 134.5
NFL Wild Card Sunday would not be the same without a matchup between Loyola MD and Lehigh, right?
Per most models, Loyola is projected to win outright, making this an interesting line for a -120 ML road favorite.
On the other side, the home dog is Lehigh, who is 4-6 ATS (40%) in its last 10 as home dog. The Mountain Hawks won three of those 10 games outright, including a win over Colgate on Jan 4, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Lehigh has played three games since then and went 2-1, beating Holy Cross and Bucknell, but losing to Army.
Loyola lost to Army by three in OT on the road. Lehigh lost by 22 points on the road at Army.
This line opened at -1.5 in favor of Loyola and was beat up to -2. Looking over the Kenpom numbers, Loyola is playing well over its four-game winning streak.
The Greyhounds held every team to 70 or fewer points in that stretch and ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.8) in Patriot League play (five games).
Offensively and defensively, Loyola is a top two team in the conference based on numbers and standings.
Lehigh plays much quicker and at a top three pace in conference play, but borderline 300th in tempo overall. The Mountain Hawks struggle with a 21.5% offensive rebounding percentage (335th) and defending the three-ball (37.3%, 326th on season). Those are two areas Loyola can take advantage of.
Loyola is shooting well during this winning streak, going 26-of-71 from three (36.6%) and 38-of-51 from the free-throw line (74.5%).
The Greyhounds are also shooting nearly 57% from two in conference play, so back the better defensive team with an offense to back it up on the ML.
Pick: Loyola MD ML (1u)
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