Vaughn Dalzell targets three games on the slate, Indiana at Michigan State, Iowa State at Texas, plus Marquette and Creighton.
Indiana at Michigan State (-3.5): O/U 135.5
Michigan State lost by 13 at Indiana earlier this season, so this is a revenge spot for the Spartans at home.
Unranked home favorites facing a ranked opponent are 29-13 ATS this season (69%). Two teams fit that trend tonight: Michigan State versus Indiana and Virginia Tech versus Miami (FL). I lean V-Tech and might play them.
Big Ten home teams have won 27 out of the last 38 home games since February started (71%) and 21 of the last 30 (70%). Michigan State is 10-2 at home this season with a 64-63 loss to Purdue and 70-63 loss versus Northwestern.
At home in conference play, the Spartans three-point defense holds opponents to 19.2% and they post two top marks in adjusted defensive efficiency (88.2) and defensive effective field goal percentage (43.1%).
The Hoosiers are bottom-two in offensive and defensive turnover percentage on the road in Big Ten play and rank 12th adjusted offensive efficiency (105.9) and 9th in offensive three-point percentage (31.4%) out of 14 teams.
Indiana is 4-6 in true road games and 3-5 away from home in Big Ten play. With a 67.6% mark from the free-throw line and Michigan State needing to split this series for tournament seeding, I like the Spartans at home in a revenge spot and an emotional spot with this being the first home game since the campus tragedy.
I played Michigan State’s 1H ML at -145 and would go out to -150 before just risking 1 unit.
Pick: Michigan State 1H ML (1u)
Iowa State at Texas (-7.5): O/U 136.0
Iowa State beat Texas 78-67 in Iowa earlier this season, so this is a home revenge spot for the Longhorns.
Texas beat Iowa State at home 63-41 last year, 78-72 the previous season and 72-68 in 2020. I see the Longhorns continuing that winning tradition versus the Cyclones in Texas.
The Longhorns are 15-1 at home this season and in conference play 6-1 with six-straight wins. Texas has terrific offensive ranks in home conference games but subpar defensive numbers, which may not matter versus Iowa State. Luckily, the Cyclones are one of the worst 50 offenses on the road.
The Cyclones have struggled away from Ames, ranking 317th or worse in free-throw percentage (63.7%), offensive three-point percentage (29.2%) and offensive turnover percentage (21.6%). Iowa State is 2-7 in true road games and lost five-straight all by six points or less, which makes this line fishy.
Iowa State has scored 62 or fewer points in four of the past six road games and they have a Team Total of 64.5, which is too high in my opinion. Caleb Grill will likely miss his second-straight game for Iowa State and the Cyclones managed 55 points on the road at Kansas State.
Most models have this as a 3 or 4 point win for Texas, but I think Iowa State’s road struggles are getting worse and with Texas and Baylor as the final two road games, there is no reason to back the Cyclones in either spot.
Give me the Longhorns -7.5 (-110) out to -8 and fade the Cyclones Team Total of 64.5 down to 62.5.
Pick: Texas -7.5 (1u), Iowa State Team Total Under 64.5 (1u)
Marquette at Creighton (-5.5): O/U 148.5
Creighton lost at Marquette 69-58 earlier this season, so this is a home revenge spot for the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays have won nine of the past 10 games with the only loss in 2 OT at Providence. The Golden Eagles won seven of the last eight games but make the tough road trip with five days of rest.
Marquette is 5-4 on the road in Big East play but have beat Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall and St. John’s in four of the last five road wins. Not impressive. The losses have been expected for Marquette coming at UConn, Xavier and Providence.
Creighton is 12-1 at home and 8-0 in Big East home games this season. I don’t expect that to change tonight in a home revenge spot to split the series. Before Marquette’s win earlier in the season, Creighton had won four-straight in the series and seven of the previous eight meetings.
Marquette has struggled to defend the tripe at 39.4% on the road in Big East play and Creighton shoots 38% from deep at home. Creighton has the size advantage, defends the three-ball exceptionally well at 27.6% in Big East home games and makes their free-throws (77.4%).
Lastly, Ryan Kalkbrenner is back and healthy for Creighton. The big man missed the previous meeting with Marquette and since his return, the Blue Jays are No. 4 in Barttorvik’s rankings and a top 20 team both offensively and defensively (since 12/22).
I am back on the Blue Jays at -5.5 (-110) out to -6. I threw Creighton’s ML in with Texas’ for -110 odds.
Pick: Creighton -5.5 (1u), Texas and Creighton ML Parlay (1u)
LEAN: Georgia at Arkansas (-15.5): O/U 142.5
In the last three meetings between Georgia and Arkansas, the Razorbacks scored 89, 99 and 99 points
Georgia allowed Alabama to score 108 points in the last game and when on the road, the Bulldogs allowed four of the past five opponents to score 82 or more points. Arkansas has scored 81 or more in three of the past four wins.
The Razorbacks and Bulldogs both rank top six in both offensive and defense tempo in the SEC and neither teams forces turnovers or defensive rebound very well.
The total and spread continues to drop from 144.5 to 142.5 and -15.5 to -13.5, as do the Team Totals. I lean Arkansas Team Total Over 78.5, but they may not need that many points.
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