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Old Dominion (-8) at William & Mary: O/U 125.5
William & Mary is 0-8 SU and ATS in their eight games against Division I teams, so that is always worth a fade.
The Tribe will take on the Old Dominion Monarchs, who won two of the past three games with a one-point loss in between victories.
Old Dominion’s three DI wins came against Manhattan, Longwood and George Mason. The Monarchs won by 1, 10 and 21 points.
ODU was without Charles Smith IV (mono) for the third straight game and Jason Wade (out every game so far this season) but beat George Mason by 10 on the road.
All of ODU’s wins came against teams ranked 255th in Kenpom. William & Mary is 321st and beat Mary Baldwin (non DI). This season, William & Mary has lost by double digits in seven out of eight losses.
The Tribe’s roster has an average of 0.99 years of experience, ranking 348th out of 358 while ranking 300th or worse in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency.
I would play ODU out to -9.
Pick: Old Dominion -8 (1u)
Butler at Oklahoma (-10): O/U 126.5
Over the last two games, Butler played Chaminade and Saginaw Valley St., of course, they won but did not impress with 84-51 and 68-57 wins.
The Bulldogs are still without Bryce Nze (shoulder), Bo Hodges (knee), and Myles Tate (knee) as they take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman.
Butler has two covers on the season, against Central Arkansas and Chaminade, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS overall (25%). Butler is 0-3 ATS and on the ML as an underdog, losing by 15.3 points per game.
Oklahoma has covered in two straight games and gets a favorable matchup against Butler.
The Bulldogs turn the ball over at a 25.4% clip (350th) and rely on its three-point offense and defense to win or stick in games.
However, the Sooners are one of the nation’s best teams in forcing turnovers, offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, two-point offense, and three-point defense.
This is also the first true road test of the season for Butler, making this a prime fade spot on the Bulldogs. Back Oklahoma out to -11.
Pick: Oklahoma -10 (1u)
Villanova (-8.5) vs. Syracuse: O/U 146.0
Villanova and Syracuse could be a shootout on a neutral court.
The Wildcats rank seventh in the country with 42.8% from three, eighth in offensive turnover percentage at 13.0% and fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency (118.3). Jay Wright has the offense humming.
On the other hand, Syracuse is on a two-game winning streak with an insane 2 OT victory over Indiana and a tightly-contested victory over Florida State.
The Orange have sharp-shooters and entertaining players like Joe Girard III, Buddy Boeheim, Jimmy Boeheim and Villanova transfer Cole Swider.
The four Syracuse leaders combined for 51 of the 63 points against Florida State and 89 out of 112 versus Syracuse.
After that Florida State game, Syracuse had two days off, so they should be back on normal rest.
Villanova is in a similar boat as Syracuse but riding a three-game winning streak with victories over La Salle, Penn and Saint Joseph’s. Villanova scored 71, 72 and 81 points in those three outings.
The Wildcats have the three-point shooting, lack of turnovers and height to contend with the Orange.
Syracuse has enough three-point shooting themselves, plus one of the best offenses in the country, coming in at 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency a little more than a dozen spots behind Villanova’s number four ranked offense.
Back the Over 146.0 as this ticked from 145.5 up a point. I would play the 146.5 or 147.0.
Pick: Over 146.0 (1u)
Virginia (-4.5) at James Madison: O/U 124.5
Virginia will go to James Madison in a game with a suspect spread.
When I saw the -4.5, I was questioning this, but that is because James Madison is 9-4 ATS and on the ML since the start of the 2020-21 season.
However, James Madison is 0-4 on the ML and 2-2 ATS against the ACC in the past four tries, including a 2019 meeting with Virginia where they lost 65-34.
At home this season, James Madison beat Carlow (non-DI), Old Dominion (58-53), Eastern Kentucky (79-78), George Mason (67-64) and Eastern Mennonite (non-DI).
Over the past two games, James Madison beat Florida Atlantic and Eastern Mennonite. I am not impressed, and Virginia has yet to be a road favorite this season.
Virginia played a true road test against Houston and lost 70-47 this season, but I expect this to go much better.
Virginia has won four of its past five games, beating Georgia, Providence, Lehigh and Pittsburgh and losing to a talented Iowa squad by one.
Virginia is excellent at defending the two (26th), slowing the tempo (358th, last) down and not committing turnovers (77th).
James Madison ranks 35th in defensive turnover percentage. However, if they struggle to force Virginia into turnovers as most teams do, I think we can see the Cavaliers pull away from the Dukes.
Pick: Virginia -4.5 (1u)
Vermont at Providence (-6.5): O/U 128.0
Providence has one loss on the season, an 18-point smackdown by Virginia, but the Friars looked stellar outside of that.
We have been on Vermont once or twice, but this is a spot to fade the Catamounts, who are 1-5 ATS on the road and neutral court games this season, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Friars should dominate the boards against a Catamount team that is undersized and relies on its experience (2.99 years, third overall).
Providence is ranked 12th in experience (2.70) and starts four seniors, so they have that covered as well.
Providence has won its last three games, all coming at home over Saint Peters by 14, Texas Tech by four and Rhode Island by 14. They are rolling behind Nate Watson, Ed Cooley and company.
Do not overthink this one and back the home team to continue its success against a Vermont team that is much better at home than on the road.
Pick: Providence -6.5 (1u)
PointsBet Booster (-110)
Michigan ML at Nebraska
Old Dominion ML at William & Mary
Michigan has beat Nebraska nine out of the last 10 meetings between the two programs and covered the spread eight times, including five straight.
When they meet in Nebraska, Michigan is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 on the ML since 2012, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
As stated earlier in the ODU piece, William & Mary is 0-8 SU and ATS in their eight games against Division I teams.
The Tribe will take on Old Dominion, who won two of the past three games with a one-point loss in between victories.
Old Dominion’s three DI wins came against Manhattan, Longwood and George Mason. The Monarchs won by 1, 10 and 21 points. They just extend William & Mary’s losing streak against DI teams.
Pick: Old Dominion and Michigan ML (1u)
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