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Fairfield at Canisius (-2): O/U 144.0
Happy Friday!
Fairfield and Canisius open MAAC play to kickstart our weekend, and we have a trendy play here.
Between the two programs, the Under has hit nine out of the last 10 meetings and five straight when Canisius is the home team, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Despite that, the total opened at 141.5 and moved to 144.0, making the Under even stronger play, in my opinion.
Most models project a total of 142-145 in this game, so it makes sense why books or bettors moved the O/U.
However, trends are trends, and both teams should be in for a competitive matchup. Both squads are coming off a loss following winning streaks. Canisius lost to Cornell and Fairfield to Loyola (MD).
Canisius beat Coppin State by one point and non-DI Fredonia State by 66. On the other hand, Fairfield beat Sacred Heart by 10, Stony Brook by five in OT and non-DI Medgar Evers by 55 points.
Canisius and Fairfield average 69.8 points per game in regulation versus DI opponents this season. Strange but true.
Canisius is the 49th-tallest team in the nation, with all five starters standing 6-f ot-5 or taller and two 6-foot-10 big men. The entire starting lineup is made of seniors and juniors.
Fairfield has two 6-foot-9 starters, plus seven out of eight players standing 6-foot-4 or taller in the rotation. The Stags also play at a much slower tempo than the Golden Griffs.
Fairfield ranks 287th in adjusted tempo (66.5) and 298th in average offensive possession length (18.6 seconds). The defensive possession length also ranks 214th (17.5 seconds), while Canisius is a top 110 pace/tempo in all three areas.
Canisius played five teams that have defensive possession lengths ranking 200th or slower. They scored 71 or fewer four out of five times versus those squads.
Both squads rank outside the 200 in offensive and defensive efficiency, but the Over is a combined 8-3 to these squads.
We will ride the strong Under trend in this series history and rely on a competitive game and drawn-out possessions in the second half.
Last season, the Over hit before the Under did the next meeting for the first time in the last 10 tries. They did not have fans in the stands either.
Let’s roll with the Under 144.0 here down to 142.0.
Pick: Under 144.0 (1u)
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Notre Dame (-4) at Boston College: O/U 133.0
My Friday Night will be capped with my second trip to Boston College...in a week!
I was supposed to be at Kansas vs. Saint John’s, but holidays happen, and I will not lie, this should be a fun game with a packed crowd.
I attended the USF at Boston College game. We won and covered the spread with BC -5.5/-6.5 but came away unimpressed with the Eagles. It took them the final five minutes to pull away in a low-scoring contest.
After watching Notre Dame on television the past few games, they have lost three of the last four games, but to who? Saint Mary’s, Texas A&M and Illinois. The lone win was over non-DI Chaminade, so basically a three-game losing streak.
While it may be hard to back a road team like Notre Dame based on those facts, the competition they have faced to start the season is much tougher than Boston College.
Before we hop into the numbers and this season, I should let you know Notre Dame has won eight of the last 10 meetings against Boston College and seven out of eight at Boston College, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Last season, BC beat Notre Dame at home without fans was the first time. Notre Dame has won by four or more point in six out of the seven wins at Boston College since 2014.
Boston College struggles to stretch the floor and plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of college basketball. They are 299th or slower in offensive and defensive possession length, plus adjusted tempo.
With that, Boston College attempts to drain the clock and find their shot. On the other side, Notre Dame plays a bit quicker but still outside the top 200 in terms of pace.
The difference between the two, Notre Dame ranks 17th in offensive adjusted efficiency (112.8) and Boston College 139th (102.9).
On defense, Boston College is ranked 122nd in adjusted efficiency (99.1) and Notre Dame 99th (97.7).
Notre Dame also returns 71% of its minutes from last season (37th-most) and has five seniors starting. Boston College only 33% of its minutes (281st) with one freshman and one sophomore in the starting lineup.
I like Notre Dame’s experience, the strength of schedule compared to Boston College’s and the Fighting Irish’s overall offense over the Eagles.
Play Notre Dame out to -5 on the spread. I will likely live bet this game from the sidelines, whether on the O/U or spread.
Pick: Notre Dame -4 (1u)
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