Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly ($9.99) or save 20% on an annual subscription ($95.88). And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off.Click here to learn more!
San Diego State at Boise State (-2): O/U 120.0
The earlier season meeting between these two teams resulted in a 42-37 final score. Yes, 42-37.
The total was set at 124 for that game. Boise State’s largest lead of the game was 35-24, while San Diego State’s largest lead was 37-35. Boise State won that game on 31% from the field and three-point land, along with 16 turnovers.
Both teams shot poorly against one another and are predicated on defense first. Looking over the numbers, this should be another see-saw type of battle with points being hard to come by.
Boise State plays at the 303rd ranked tempo (65.4), owns the 339th-ranked average defensive possession (18.5 seconds) and comes in at 11th nationally for adjusted defensive efficiency (90.3), per Kenpom.
San Diego State ranks first in the country with an 85.8 adjusted defensive efficiency, second-slowest average possession length on defense (19.2 seconds) and the 275th-ranked tempo (65.9), per Kenpom.
The Under is 15-8 on the season for San Diego State (65.2%), while Boise State is 15-11 to the Under (57.7%). Overall, the Under is 42-34 (55.2%) in Mountain West Conference play this season.
Both teams play slow and grind-it-out defense, which should not change in the second meeting. The past two meetings have totaled 79 and 120 points, so play the Under 120https://edit-edge.nbcsports.com/admin/content/media.5 in this matchup but tweeted it out at 120.
I like this down to 119 and anticipate the line to close around 118.5 to 119.5.
Pick: Under 120 (1u)
Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Nebraska at Northwestern (-11): O/U 149.0
A bottom-cellar matchup in the Big Ten provides a good bounce back spot for Northwestern and the possibility of sparks to fly in the form of points.
The Over hit in three straight meetings between these two teams. Northwestern has cashed in three of the last four as a home favorite (75%), while Nebraska hit the game Over in four of the last five games overall (80%) and seven of the previous 10 (70%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Using our Game Predictions model, two of the most profitable trends have been to the Over for both teams.
Nebraska is not a good team and that has been evident with a 2-17 record over the last 19 games (wins vs Kennesaw State and Minnesota). The Cornhuskers lost to Northwestern 87-63 at home this season and will want a better outing than the previous beatdown.
However, Northwestern has lost three straight games to Illinois (73-67), Purdue (70-64) and Minnesota (77-60). They get the worst team in the Big Ten in a spot where they are slightly overpriced by the books.
Rather than backing the spread and leaving the back door open, play the Over as both teams play the second and fourth-quickest offensive tempos in Big Ten play. Nebraska owns the Big Ten’s worst defense in terms of adjusted efficiency (113.4), average possession length (17.1 seconds) and nearly every defensive shooting category.
I played the Over 149 and would play this up to 150.0.
Pick: Over 149 (1u)
Arkansas (PK) at Florida: O/U 135.0
Tom Casale wrote about this game on the website, so I won’t go deep into detail but after Florida knocked off Auburn, 63-62 at home, this is a perfect letdown spot for the Gators.
Arkansas has won two straight games over Missouri (76-57) and Tennessee (58-48) after losing to Alabama (68-67), snapping a nine-game winning streak. The Razorbacks are winners in 11 of the last 12 games, including a 80-76 OT win over Auburn.
Florida’s defense plays at one of the slowest paces, forcing opponents into an average of 18.7 seconds per possession (351st) and the slowest in SEC play (19.0 seconds). Arkansas’ quick tempo ball all-around, makes this a tough challenge for Florida to the Razorbacks down.
Texas A&M’s offense plays a hair quicker than Arkansas’ in conference play and beat Florida 56-55. LSU is No. 3 in SEC play in and beat Florida 64-58. Alabama is the quickest offensive team in the SEC and toppled Florida 83-70. The only win for Florida against a top five offensive paced team in SEC play was versus South Carolina (71-63).
Arkansas has a long nine-game losing streak dating back to 2007 when visiting Florida. However, the Razorbacks beat the Gators at home this season (75-64) and are 2-2 on the ML in the past four games as a favorite versus Florida.
I grabbed Arkansas at -110 as a basic pick em on PointsBet. Other sites are beginning to move towards Arkansas as a -1 point favorite.
Pick: Arkansas ML (1u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
