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It’s always fun betting on a monumental matchup like Gonzaga-Duke, but following smaller schools closely can be very profitable over the college basketball season. With 358 teams, it’s impossible for oddsmakers to set correct opening lines for every game.
Each week, we’ll set the table by looking at some mid-major matchups bettors should be eyeing.
Posted odds are courtesy of PointsBet, while the projected lines are taken from KenPom.
Tuesday
Canisius Golden Griffins (7-14) at Siena Saints (8-8)
Opening Line: Siena -4
Siena started 0-4 and looked like a team that might be an auto-fade this season. However, since the slow start, the Saints are 8-4 both straight up and against the spread.
Siena was a nice early season fade but the Saints are playing much better of late.
— Thomas Casale (@TheTomCasale) December 11, 2021
Siena is 4-2 in its last 6 games with both losses coming in OT.
Something to monitor moving forward.
The reason for Siena’s turnaround is improved defense, especially when it comes to guarding the perimeter. Siena ranks Top 10 in three-point scoring rate defense and the Saints have been even better in conference play, holding teams to a MAAC-low 25 percent from beyond the arc.
Canisius is just 2-5 in its last seven games, although the Golden Griffins are more competitive than their record indicates. Four of those losses came by 8 points or less. Canisius’ biggest issue is shooting. The issue being they aren’t very good at it. The Golden Griffins rank 328th in effective field goal percentage, 320th in two-point percentage and 306th in three-point percentage.
Canisius’ best asset offensively is it gets to the free throw line a lot. However, they haven’t been converting on those opportunities in conference play. The Golden Griffins rank second to last in the MAAC in free throw shooting percentage at 68.6 percent.
This is a situation where I think Siena is starting to peak. Canisius plays tough but they are a better bet at home than on the road, where the Golden Griffins are 0-11 this season. I like Siena to cover the four points at home but wouldn’t lay more than -5.
Pick: Siena -4
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Wednesday
Rhode Island Rams (12-7) at Fordham Rams (9-10)
Projected Line: Rhode Island -2
Fordham was having a nice start to its season. The Rams were sitting at 9-4 and it looked like they would actually be competitive in the A-10. Then the bottom fell out. Antonio Daye Jr. announced he was leaving the program in December and taking his 16.8 points and 3.6 rebounds per game with him.
It was a massive blow for a downtrodden program trying to work its way up the A-10 ladder. Since Daye left, the Rams are 0-5, losing by an average of 10 points per game. The issue for the young Rams is that without Daye, Fordham has just one true backcourt scoring threat in Darius Quisenberry (17.7 PPG).
Rhode Island also comes into this contest struggling, losers of three straight. However, the one thing the Rams do well is defend. Rhode Island’s defense ranks 41st in efficiency, 13th in effective field goal percentage, and eighth in two-point percentage. Fordham shoots a lot of three and if the Rams aren’t hitting from beyond the arc, it will be awfully difficult for them to score.
I’m not a huge fan of this Rhode Island team overall but think it’s a good spot to back them as a short road favorite against sinking Fordham.
Lean: Rhode Island -2
Thursday
San Francisco Dons (17-5) at BYU Cougars (17-6)
Projected Line: BYU -4
Last week I bet BYU on the ML versus Santa Clara. The Cougars led that game 74-70 with 30 seconds left but imploded down the stretch, losing 77-76 on a last second shot. That loss carried over to Saturday when BYU was upset on the road by a bad Pacific team.
Jalen Williams gets the GAME WINNING floater with 0.7 seconds left for Santa Clara to beat BYU 77-76 pic.twitter.com/RIlzdzAoFV
— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) January 28, 2022
I mentioned last week that I liked BYU as a potential Sweet 16 team but now they are coming off two road losses by a total of four points. However, I think this is a good spot to back the Cougars. BYU will have five days off to lick its wounds and get back on track. This is still one of the top defenses teams in the WCC with good guard play led by Alex Barcello (17.0 PPG) and Te’Jon Lucas (10.8 PPG).
San Francisco had a meltdown of its own last Thursday, blowing a 23-point lead at home to Saint Mary’s. Unlike BYU though, the Dons rebounded from that loss to defeat Santa Clara at home, 88-85. San Francisco’s strength is also defense, ranking 33rd in efficiency and 14th in three-point percentage.
According to the metrics, these two teams are razor close and that was evident in the first meeting where BYU won 71-69. The one thing that concerns me about San Francisco though is it’s almost February and the Dons have played just three true road games.
KenPom projects this line to be BYU -4. I’ll have to see where it opens. I wouldn’t go much higher but if the Cougars open -3 at home, I will likely pounce.
Lean: BYU -4
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