You know how you always hear NBA players and coaches and executives talk about wanting to enter the playoffs with some "momentum?"
The narrative seems to be that it's paramount to be playing your best basketball as the postseason arrives.
Well, as NBC Sports NBA Insider Tom Haberstroh notes, it's all a myth. Well, at least when it comes to wins and losses.
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SIGN UP HERE Since 2000, there have been 10 top seeds (No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the conference) who entered the postseason with a losing record in their final 10 games -- it doesn’t happen often. Of those teams that sputtered into the playoffs, six of them turned things around and reached the Finals. Of the 10 top seeds who entered the postseason scorching hot with at least nine wins in their final 10 games, just five reached the Finals.
How teams finish the regular season and perform in the postseason is mostly a toss-up. Momentum is little more than a fairy tale.
The Warriors proved this to be correct last year. They lost 10 of their final 17 games, including six of their last 10 (this was mostly because of injuries and/or rest).
Steve Kerr later admitted that he wasn't sure if the defense -- which was ranked 19th over the final 17 games -- would be good enough to win the championship.
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Well, Steph Curry returned against the Pelicans in the West Semis and they survived a scare from the Rockets and ultimately captured the title behind the No. 1-ranked playoff defense.
Let's take a look at how the Warriors fared in their final 10 games the prior three seasons:
-2014-15 = 8-2 = NBA champions (they actually went 16-2 over the final 18 games)
-2015-16 = 8-2 = lose Game 7 of Finals (we don't need to re-litigate why they fell short)
-2016-17 = 9-1 = NBA champions (they actually went 15-1 over the final 16 games)
So basically, when it came to the Warriors over the past four seasons...
...it didn't really matter. They were so good that they advanced to the Finals anyway.
It's also worth noting that the teams in 2014-15 and 2015-16 don't qualify under these parameters because they didn't go at least 9-1 over the final 10. But I would consider 16-2 over the last 18 and 11-2 over the last 13 (or just 73-9 in general) as "scorching hot."
[LISTEN: Warriors Outsiders Podcast -- Durant's insanely efficient night in Memphis]
Lastly, are there metrics on teams advancing to the Finals based on how they started the season? Good question ... and thanks again to Tom Haberstroh for doing the research:
Since 2000, none of the 10 coldest top-seeded teams in the first 10 games of the season won a title; only two even reached the Finals. On the other end of the spectrum, of the 10 hottest early-season teams, three eventually won the championship (2007-08 Celtics, 2008-09 Lakers and 2013-14 Spurs) and a grand total of six reached the Finals.
We don't yet know how the Warriors will fare over the final 10 games this time around (so far they are 2-0), but we do know they started the season with 10 wins in their first 11 games.