The Warriors entered the season with a plan to break up the year into three phases: pre-Klay Thompson's return, the return, and the runway to the playoffs.
Instead, the Warriors have spent the season absorbing body blows after their 18-2 start. Golden State was without Thompson for the first two months, then lost Draymond Green for 31 days just as Thompson returned and now reportedly has lost Steph Curry for an indefinite period of time just one game after Green was cleared to rejoin the lineup.
Golden State's dream of having a fully healthy roster hasn't been answered. Now, with Curry sidelined likely at least until the start of the playoffs, the Warriors' playoff fate is in dire straights.
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The long-term implications of Curry's injury are obvious. If he can't come back or isn't 100 percent, the Warriors have no shot at winning the NBA title. Period.
But the short-term ramifications of Curry's injury also could be massive for a Warriors team that still hopes to have their Big Three healthy for the postseason. (We still are waiting for official word on Curry's timetable as of Friday morning.)
With 12 games remaining in the regular season, the Warriors are 47-23 and in third place in the Western Conference. They are one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the No. 2 seed but are effectively two games back since Memphis would hold the tiebreaker by winning its division.
Curry's injury makes an already unlikely run at the No. 2 seed even more unlikely for Golden State. But without Curry in the lineup for the remainder of the regular season, the Warriors now are in real danger of falling past the third seed and into the four-five range.
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The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks both are 43-26, just three games back in the loss column from the Warriors.
The Mavericks already have won the season series against the Warriors, by going 3-1. (That blown 21-point lead might end up biting the Warriors.) Dallas also faces a much easier schedule during this final stretch than Golden State.
Per Tankathon, the Mavericks have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, including games against the Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers, and Washington Wizards. Four of Dallas' final five games are against the Pistons, Blazers, Wizards, and San Antonio Spurs.
The Warriors' remaining SOS, per Tankathon, is ranked 19 in the league, so their road isn't brutal based on opponent's winning percentage. But the Warriors play eight of their final 12 games on the road and still have four back-to-backs left. With Curry out, Green on a minutes restriction, and Thompson still not playing in back-to-backs, that makes the Warriors' road all the more challenging.
Golden State does have favorable matchups with the Wizards, Spurs (twice), Orlando Magic, and Sacramento Kings remaining. But the Warriors also face the Jazz, Grizzlies, Miami Heat, and Phoenix Suns down the stretch.
As for the Jazz, they face the Warriors on April 2, and the winner of that game will win the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two. The Jazz have the sixth-hardest schedule remaining, per Tankathon, with games against the Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Suns, and Mavericks on the docket along with that tilt against the Warriors.
All this is to say, there's a very real chance the Warriors are passed for the No. 3 seed and could realistically fall to the No. 5 seed and not even have homecourt in the first round against either Utah or Dallas.
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Falling to fourth or fifth would, of course, alter the Warriors' first-round opponent. Playing either the Mavs or Jazz might be more of a challenge than facing the likely sixth-seeded Denver Nuggets, depending on the status of the injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. But without knowing Curry's status for the playoffs, or that of it's hard to analyze those potential matchups.
But the real danger in falling out of the third seed is the second-round ramifications.
Sliding into that four-five range would bump the Warriors to the Suns' side of the bracket. Phoenix likely will have Chris Paul back and has steamrolled most of the league when fully healthy. There's also a decent chance the Suns would be well-rested for the second round as they should have little trouble with whoever emerges from the play-in tournament to claim the eighth seed.
In order to get to the Finals, the Warriors would likely have to go through the Suns regardless. But it would probably be more beneficial for the Warriors to see the Suns as late in the game as possible, so Golden State's rhythm and continuity are at their best for that Western Conference showdown.
With Curry out of an indefinite period of time, the Warriors' once-promising season is in danger of circling the drain. At the bare minimum, Curry's short-term absence could complicate the Warriors' playoff road. At most, Golden State's season could end much quicker than anticipated if he can't return, or is less than 100 percent, for the postseason.