The loss of Kevin Durant is undoubtedly a huge blow to the Warriors' NBA title chances.
When the two-time reigning NBA Finals MVP left Game 5 of the Warriors' second-round NBA playoff series with the Rockets, the feeling around the series shifted.
Steph Curry and Klay Thompson weathered the storm to lead the Dubs to a win in Game 5, giving the Warriors a three-games-to-two series lead over the Rockets. Durant was ruled out for the rest of the Western Conference semifinals with a right calf strain and will be re-evaluated in a week.
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Let's get the obvious part out of the way: The Warriors will absolutely miss Durant's scoring on the offensive end. He's averaging 34.2 points per game this postseason and has been borderline unstoppable ever since his "I'm Kevin Durant" moment after Game 2 of the first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers.
But the Warriors, the greatest collection of talent in the history of the NBA, should have the offensive firepower to overcome that.
Curry, a two-time NBA MVP and the greatest shooter the game has ever seen, has struggled to find his shot against the Rockets while battling a dislocated finger on his non-shooting hand. But he snapped out of his funk in the fourth quarter of Game 5, and now will be relied upon to carry the offensive load, along with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, with Durant out.
In theory, the Warriors' offense should still be a deadly weapon from which there is little escape even without KD.
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However, Durant's injury works in the Rockets' favor in more ways than one.
P.J. Tucker, Houston's best defender who has been hounding Durant all series, is now freed up to bully Curry and body Green. As ESPN's Kirk Goldsberry pointed out, that could be bad news for the two-time defending NBA champions.
Since the beginning of last season, both Curry and Green's offensive numbers against the Rockets drop when guarded by Tucker.
When not being guarded by Tucker, Curry has a usage rate (percentage of team's plays he uses while on the floor) of 28.8 and an effective field goal percentage of 53.3. He averages 31.1 points per 100 possessions against the Rockets when not being hounded by Tucker. However, when the Rockets shift Tucker onto Curry, his usage rate drops to 22.6, his eFG dips slightly to 52.2 and his points per 100 possessions diminishes drastically to 23.6, via Second Spectrum Sports.
Likewise, with Green, all three numbers drop significantly when being guarded by Tucker. His usage rate goes from 12.4 to 9.7, his eFG from 51.0 to 38.9 and his points per 100 falls from 13.3 to 8.1.
This is all significant in that Tucker has guarded Durant more than twice the amount of any other Rockets defender, and he now can focus on bothering the Warriors' greatest facilitator and most dynamic offensive threat, depending on where Mike D'Antoni elects to put him.
But, Durant's absence also could benefit the Rockets on the other end of the floor, as well.
With his length and athleticism, Durant has been a key defensive piece for the Warriors, especially in this series. He has altered shots at the rim and bothered the Rockets' lethal guard trio of James Harden, Eric Gordon and Chris Paul when matched up against them.
While Andre Iguodala has been tasked with guarding Harden for the majority of the series, Durant has done an incredible job on the reigning NBA MVP when given the opportunity.
Per Goldsberry, Durant has guarded Harden on 54 possessions so far this series. Harden is averaging 100 points per 100 possession when Durant is hounding him. Iguodala has matched up with Harden on 164 possessions in the series, and The Beard is averaging 107.7 points per 100 possessions against him. After Durant and Iguodala, the Warriors' individual defensive numbers against Harden aren't pretty to look at. In terms of points per 100 possessions, the Rockets star more or less has his way with Thompson (117.4), Curry (126.4) and Green (132.0). If Iguodala gets in foul trouble early, Harden could feast in Game 6 and Game 7 (if necessary).
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So while the Warriors will miss having the ability to throw the ball to KD and have him go get them a bucket when needed, the two-time NBA Finals MVP's absence has larger implications than just his individual scoring numbers.