SAN FRANCISCO -- If the Philadelphia Phillies' run to the World Series has brought out any extra emotions for Gabe Kapler, their former manager, he certainly isn't showing them. Kapler has long wanted to drive a conversion van through British Columbia, and if you check his social media pages right now you'll find rivers and bridges, not baseball.
Most of the rest of the Giants will be tuning in Friday night, though, as the Phillies and Astros kick off a series between two very different teams. The Astros haven't lost a game this postseason and seem poised to put a cherry on top of what has been an incredible run over the last six years. The Phillies looked like they might give away their Wild Card spot in late September, but they caught fire when it mattered most.
The last two teams standing have different styles, but both have done a lot right in getting to this point. Here are five things the Giants can take away from this postseason and the looming matchup as they prepare for an offseason that they hope will get them back to contention:
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You're Not That Far Away
Philadelphia's win totals over the last four full seasons: 80, 81, 82, 87. In the NLCS, they beat a Padres team that won 89 games but also got hot at the right time.
It's easy to look at a team like the 2022 Giants and think about how much work there is left to do, but if they simply had an average defense, the Giants probably would have gotten into the postseason. And then, as teams continue to show, you never know what can happen. The Giants themselves proved that with their 2014 title as a wild-card teams.
The Giants should go big this offseason, because the goal isn't to win 87 games and hope to get hot. They should and will chase Aaron Judge, but if they fall short there, they shouldn't shy away from other deals they might deem uncomfortable just because long-term sustainability remains the ultimate desire.
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If they bring back Carlos Rodón and Joc Pederson and sign Carlos Correa, are they going to pass the Dodgers in the NL West? Probably not, but that's also potentially a playoff team, and the Phillies are the latest example that sometimes you just need a ticket to the dance.
It Takes Two
When the Giants held Rodón at the deadline, they were hoping for exactly what is described in the paragraphs above. Farhan Zaidi said at the time that nobody would want to face Rodón and Logan Webb in a short series, and that was certainly true. The problem for the Giants, of course, is that they didn't give them that shot.
There are a lot of reasons why the Phillies are at this point, but the two-headed monster of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola is near the top of the list. They have combined to start seven of 11 playoff games and have allowed just 11 earned runs in 42 2/3 innings. The Astros have a much deeper rotation but Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez will end up starting six of their first nine postseason games.
As the Giants build for 2023, they'll again need a co-ace for Webb, who was excellent last October in his postseason debut. Is it Rodón again? Verlander? Jacob deGrom? The next player in the Kevin Gausman/Rodón mold? There will be a lot of options for a team that needs one more starter.
Listen To The New Guy
Pete Putila left the Astros early in the postseason to become the new general manager of the Giants, who hope to one day find the type of sustainability that's been so remarkable in Houston. The Astros have reached at least the ALCS in six straight seasons and seem impervious to the swings that get to other marquee franchises. This year's group is just about completely different from the 2017 champion, and that's what makes this latest run so special.
According to MLB Pipeline, the Astros had the most homegrown players of any of the 12 postseason teams, and they have been particularly adept with international signings. Their incredible rotation includes four starting pitchers who signed for a combined $140,000 as international free agents.
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The Giants are starting to see signs of life with Camilo Doval turning into a star and prospects like Marco Luciano and Luis Matos on the way, but they have gotten very little production out of their international signings over the last decade. The Astros are doing something different, and the Giants are hopeful that Putila can help replicate that.
Bringing The Heat
If you turn on the late innings of any postseason game, you'll see the same thing. Gas. Lots and lots of gas. It seems that every reliever is sitting 98-99 mph, and many are reaching back for even more.
The Padres had Josh Hader, Robert Suarez and Luis Garcia at triple digits in the late innings. The Phillies have Jose Alvarado hitting 101 from the left side and Seranthony Dominguez at 99 from the right side. The ALCS featured guys like Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loaisiga, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, Ryne Stanek and Miguel Castro bringing the heat. The early rounds were more of the same from the other playoff teams.
There's still room for guys who are 94-95 with better command, but more and more, velocity is king in the late innings. The good news for the Giants is that they're already headed in that direction.
Over a span of two years, they went from 28th in average fastball velocity to fifth. Rodón helped quite a bit, but Doval throws as hard as anyone and some younger arms are bringing a new heat wave to the bullpen. Cole Waites should be part of the solution next year and the Giants still have high hopes for Yunior Marte and Thomas Szapucki. Maybe an R.J. Dabovich or Gregory Santos breaks through next year? As this postseason has shown, you can never have enough huge arms in the bullpen.
Be Flexible
Coaching and analytics staffs spend a lot of time scripting out how they would ideally get through each game, which is a great idea in general. But sometimes they forget that the most successful postseason manager of this generation -- Bruce Bochy -- won three titles in large part by trusting his gut and his players. Two examples stand out from the last month.
In Game 3 of the ALDS, Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby put two runners on in the seventh inning ahead of Jose Altuve. At a time when most managers worry about a hitter facing a starting pitcher a third time, Altuve was seeing Kirby for the fourth time. But Scott Servais stuck with his rookie, and on his 92nd pitch of the day, Kirby blew Altuve away to end the inning and the threat.
Later that day, the Dodgers pulled Tyler Anderson after five shutout innings and just 86 pitches. Their season ended a few innings later after their bullpen coughed up the lead.
The Giants have some work to do to get back to October, but if they reach their goals next year, they should remember the lesson the Dodgers have learned over and over again the last half-decade. At some point in October, you just have to throw out the script.
