Alex Pavlovic and Cole Kuiper discuss Logan Webb’s impending arbitration eligibility and what they think the Giants should do about his contract situation.
SAN FRANCISCO -- After several years of doing the opposite, the Giants, from the ownership level on down, have made it clear that they're ready to once again shop in the expensive aisles when free agency opens next month. It's a plan that will come with some level of discomfort, but if the front office ever starts to have doubts, it can look back at the lineups for tonight's National League Championship Series.
This round is one the Giants haven't reached in eight years, and the two teams still alive include two of the only superstars the Giants have truly gone after since a new regime took over.
Since the front office changes in 2018, the Giants haven't given out a contract longer than three years or larger than the $44 million Carlos Rodón was guaranteed if he decided to stick around for a second season. But in his first offseason in charge, Farhan Zaidi did try to blow past those numbers. The Giants offered Bryce Harper a 12-year deal that would have paid him $310 million, only to see him take $330 million from the Philadelphia Phillies.
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The road since then hasn't been any easier for Harper than for the Giants, but the Phillies pushed past a rough September to stun the New York Mets and then the Atlanta Braves in the first two rounds of the postseason. Tonight they'll meet a San Diego Padres team that features the other future Hall-of-Famer the Giants felt they had a good shot at in recent years.
Like Harper, Juan Soto is a former Washington Nationals star who was never locked up long-term by the franchise. When he became available before this year's trade deadline, the Giants made the call.
"We had conversations about Juan Soto with the Nationals, again, like any team doing their due diligence was," Zaidi said in August. "Obviously the Nationals gravitated towards the package with the players they liked the best. He's one of the best players in the big leagues and I think every team would love to have him. We were involved and the Nationals, I think, ultimately went with the group of players they liked the best."
With Harper, the Giants were hurt in part by California taxes that would have necessitated going well past Philadelphia's final offer to make the money match up. With Soto, the biggest problem was something the Giants have more control over. The Padres had a better prospect package, in part because several high-end Giants minor leaguers took a step back in 2022 and some first-round picks haven't developed as hoped.
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Soto ended up going to a Padres team that has gone all-in at every opportunity, a rarity in today's game, with so many front offices focusing on sustainability and winning at the margins. Under president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the Padres have given Manny Machado $300 million, traded for Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Josh Hader, and built such a stacked roster that they were able to reach the postseason this year without getting a single at-bat from Fernando Tatis Jr.
Four years ago, the Phillies had their eyes on Machado and Harper, but the latter has proven to be the right fit, winning an MVP award and building a foundation for a Phillies front office that continued to add. The Phillies gave $118 million to Zack Wheeler in 2019 and last offseason signed both Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.
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A year before the Harper chase, the Giants went hard after Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani, but they generally have focused on different types over the past three offseasons. There was interest in Trevor Story and they surely have made offers to other stars, but they have yet to give out a nine-figure deal since missing out on Harper, or push their chips to the middle with the type of prospect package it would take to get someone like Soto.
The Giants have hinted, though, that that's about to change. On his season-ending Zoom call with reporters, Zaidi said he wouldn't judge the offseason on whether the Giants make a splash, but added, "obviously making headlines in the offseason could be really impactful in that goal of making the playoffs in 2023."
"We have to go back to the drawing board and explore every channel to get better," Zaidi said. "I expect us to be really active this offseason. We do have the flexibility to be involved in every possible option on the table."
That hasn't always been the case in recent years, but as the Giants prepare for an important winter, they're getting a reminder of how impactful those types of players can be, and they won't have to look hard to find the next in line after they missed on Harper and Soto. Four hours before the National League Championship Series starts, Aaron Judge will try to lead the Yankees to the next round on the other side of the bracket.