Week 3 NFL picks: Can Nick Mullens lead 49ers past Giants?
Two weeks into the NFL season, there have been zero positive COVID tests (good), some coaches still aren't wearing their masks (not great) and a couple of should-be contenders already find their season taking on water.
The 49ers entered Week 2 needing a rebound after a Week 1 loss. They found it, drubbing the New York Jets 31-13. But the win was costly, as Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas were lost for the season, and Jimmy Garoppolo injured his ankle and won't play in Week 3.
Jon Gruden's Raiders stunned most pundits (me included) by beating the New Orleans Saints handily in Week 2 to move to 2-0. Elsewhere, the Minnesota Vikings look like something my dog coughed up, Mitchell Trubisky won again and the Atlanta Falcons still can't close.
Which 2-0 teams are for real? Can the Vikings, Falcons, Houston Texans or Philadelphia Eagles resurrect their season? Let's get to the picks (odds provided by our partner, PointsBet).
Record: 13-3 (8-8 ATS)
Line: Jags -3
In the great facial hair war of 2020, the mustache nips the beard. Gardner Minshew has completed 75 percent of his passes through two games, racking up 512 yards and six touchdowns. The Dolphins won't have enough FitzMagic to get the win in Duval.
Tua Time in Week 4?
Pick: Jags 31, Dolphins 27
Line: Browns -7
Dink-and-dunk Dwayne Haskins leads one of the NFL's worst passing attacks against a discombobulated Browns defense. Yuck.
After a Week 1 shellacking by the Ravens, the Browns got the benefit of playing the Bengals and Football Team in back-to-back weeks to get back on track. The Football Team's front four should pressure Baker Mayfield, but Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a huge day to please the Dawg Pound.
Line: Browns 30, Football Team 17
Line: Steelers -4
Man, who did Bill O'Brien piss off in the scheduling office? The Texans open with the Chiefs and Ravens and now have to go to Pittsburgh staring 0-3 in the face. Woof.
Bad news for Deshaun Watson, the Steelers have 73 pressures through two weeks and the right side of his offensive line is in pieces. T.J. Watt and the Steelers' defense hammer Watson and the Texans find themselves in a massive hole.
By the way, has anyone seen Will Fuller?
Pick: Steelers 27, Texans 21
Line: Eagles -4.5
Through two weeks, the Eagles' offense ranks last in efficiency in the NFL. That's awful and has the wolves at the gates asking for Carson Wentz's job.
Luckily for Doug Pederson, his offense should be able to find its groove against an atrocious Bengals defense.
At 1-2, the Eagles are right back in the NFC East race.
Poor Joe Burrow, he deserves better than the Bengals.
Pick: Eagles 28, Bengals 20
Line: Titans -2.5
The Vikings were a trendy Super Bowl pick, but they've been lifeless during the first two weeks. Kirk Cousins remains the biggest thief since D.B. Cooper jumped out of that plane.
With Anthony Barr hurt and Eric Kendricks looking like a shell of himself, the Vikings' defense is all out of whack. Minnesota stinks and the Titans love bullying teams with no backbone. Take it to the bank.
Pick: Titans 27, Vikings 20
Line: Bills -2.5
Both these teams have looked like playoff contenders early on. Josh Allen and the Bills have been feasting on lesser competition, while Jared Goff and the Rams look rejuvenated.
The Rams' defense might struggle to contain Allen and the Bills' offensive weapons, but Goff and Sean McVay engineer a game-winning drive at The Ralph to move to 3-0.
Pick: Rams 27, Bills 24
Line: Falcons -3
Matt Ryan and the offense have been shredding teams. The defense, however, couldn't stop my D-3 Intramural championship team from college. (Go Turtles!).
Mitchell Trubisky has been better, but the Bears' offense still ranks 24th in efficiency. Both Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott won NFC Offensive Player of the Week after facing the Falcons. If Trubisky makes it three in a row, Dan Quinn's seat will give him scorch marks on his derriere.
Falcons' offense has been too good to be 0-3.
Pick: Falcons 27, Bears 17
Line: Colts -11.5
Mekhi Becton is an absolute monster, but the rest of the Jets should be updating their resumes.
The Colts are without Marlon Mack, Parris Campbell and Malik Hooker, but they should walk right over Adam Gase and the pitiful Jets. Trevor Lawrence might want to start looking for some real estate in East Rutherford.
Pick: Colts 24, Jets 10
Line: Chargers -6
Justin Herbert is the real deal. Full stop. The Oregon product went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in Week 2 and played well enough to win, throwing for 311 yards and a touchdown while also adding a score on the ground.
The Panthers have notched one (!) quarterback hit through two games. The Bolts will feast and Tyrod Taylor isn't getting his job back.
Pick: Chargers 28, Panthers 17
Line: Seattle -5
Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys were lucky to escape Week 2 at 1-1, and now they get the Seahawks.
Dallas' non-existent pass rush will be an issue against Russell Wilson, who has been flawless through two weeks.
The Cowboys' saving grace could be an ordinary Seahawks defense that will have trouble slowing down Dak Prescott, but it won't be enough.
Russ cooks up another W.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Cowboys 31
Line: Bucs -6
Tom Brady has a history of struggles at Mile High. But Jeff Driskel isn't Peyton Manning, and Von Miller won't be harassing TB12 come Sunday.
Brady's offense still didn't look cohesive in a win over the Panthers. Chris Godwin's return should help, but Vic Fangio's defense will present a challenge.
The Broncos are down a number of key starters, but they'll keep it close. Too close for Bruce Arians' liking.
Pick: Bucs 24, Broncos 20
Line: Cardinals -5.5
These two teams tied to open last season, but Kyler Murray is a different quarterback now.
The Lions' defense has been borderline offensive through two weeks and the offense hasn't been much better. Kenny Golladay should help that if he comes back, but I can't pick against Kyler.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Lions 23
Line: Saints -3
The Saints really missed Michael Thomas in Week 2 and Drew Brees was shaky at best against a porous Raiders defense. Alvin Kamara should have a good day against a Packers' defense which normally refuses to stop the run, Sean Payton will need his aging quarterback to make plays to beat the Packers. Plays he didn't make in Sin City.
Aaron Rodgers and Co. can beat you in a number of ways and look like the best team in the NFC at the moment.
Pick: Packers 24, Saints 20
Line: Ravens -3.5
It's not often we get to see the two best teams in the NFL duel in the regular season, so this will be a treat.
Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is jarring to see, but the Chiefs' offense has looked relatively ordinary through two weeks. Mahomes only has three completions of more than 20 yards and Kansas City ranks 17th in yards per play.
Lamar makes a statement on the big stage.
Pick: Ravens 34, Chiefs 30
Line: Patriots -5
Hey, the Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0, who would have guessed it? (Insert Paul Rudd gif here).
Derek Carr has been on point and the defense has made just enough to plays to survive and pick up Ws against the Panthers and Saints.
That train ends in Foxboro this week against Cam Newton and the Patriots. The Raiders' run defense is giving up almost five yards a carry and they'll have no answer for Newton. Plus, did you see what Bill Belichick wore to his Wednesday presser? He's hasn't slept since Sunday.
Pick: Patriots 28, Raiders 21
Line: 49ers -4
No Jimmy Garoppolo, no Nick Bosa, no Saquon Barkley, no Richard Sherman and likely no George Kittle. Welp, guess they have to play this one anyways, right?
The 49ers are going to be trotting out a lot of backups at MetLife Stadium, including quarterback Nick Mullens, but the Giants' offense without Barkley doesn't have anything to scare them. It'll be boring, but the 49ers should leave Gotham with a win.
Pick: 49ers 20, Giants 17
