Week 13 burning questions: Are healthy 49ers playoff nightmare?
We're entering the home stretch of the NFL season, and the 49ers aren't dead yet.By completing their season sweep of the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers move to 5-6 and are in the thick of the NFC playoff race as they continue to get healthy. With Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle still on the mend, the 49ers are doing their best to keep the ship afloat until their leaders can return late in the season.Elsewhere, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers continue to struggle and the finger-pointing from Bruce Arians isn't going to help matters. In Philly, Carson Wentz has no weapons, no time to throw and his head coach isn't helping him, putting the Eagles in a precarious position. Down in New Orleans, the wins are nice but has Taysom Hill proved he's the answer to life without Drew Brees?Let's dive into the hottest questions around the NFL and see if we can make sense of the wreckage ahead of Week 13.
Verdict: Buy
I understand the financial ramifications of moving on from Wentz will be hard for the Eagles to stomach, but that doesn't mean they have to keep starting him this season.
The quarterback who was sprinting toward the 2017 NFL MVP Award now seems like a lost cause. Over the last six weeks, Wentz has a passer rating of 76.1, better than only three quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Jake Luton and Drew Lock. Since the start of 2019, Wentz has accounted for 48 turnover-worthy plays, which is the most in the NFL.
This season, Wentz has seen his quarterback rating fall to 73.4, a 24.9-point drop from his combined passer rating over the previous three seasons. Only six quarterbacks have seen their passer rating decline by 24 points or more from their combined rating during the last three seasons, and Wentz is the only one under 30 years old.
The Eagles have a host of problems. Their offensive line can't block anyone, their receivers can't separate and Doug Pederson has forgotten how to coach. (I would contend Pederson was propped up by Frank Reich and John DeFilippo when he won the Super Bowl, but that's a different conversation.)
Philly spent a second-round pick on Jalen Hurts and now is the time to see what they have in the Alabama/Oklahoma product. Wentz is getting pummeled every week, and for what? For the Eagles to go 5-10-1 and get dusted in the Wild Card Round?
That's a waste.
The Eagles should allow Hurts to start and give Wentz the opportunity not to get hammered over the remaining five weeks for no reason. They can't realistically move on from him until 2022, but they should give him time to reset and head into 2021 with a fresh body and mind while seeing if Hurts has what it takes to be an NFL starter.
Verdict: Buy
The Saints' fascination with Taysom Hill was always odd. Paying a 30-year-old gadget player $16.3 million in the hope that he could take over for Drew Brees was a decision that should have forced someone to be committed.
Prior to this season, Hill had thrown just 13 career passes, the majority of them as part of a gadget/trick play. It was easy for Saints coach Sean Payton to say that we didn't really know what Hill could do because he hadn't been given the opportunity yet.
Well, he's got it now. And the early returns haven't been impressive.
With Brees out with a number of fractured ribs, Payton turned to hill instead of Jameis Winston to be the Saints' starter until Brees returns.
In his first game as a starter, Hill threw for 233 yards and rushed for two touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons. It wasn't an eye-opening showing and at least one of his long completions looked like a dead bird that had been shot out of the sky.
This past Sunday, Hill threw for just 78 yards as the Saints went ultra-conservative against the quarterback-less Broncos.
The Saints will keep winning games because they have the offensive playmakers and a stout defense that can make up for Hill's shortcomings.
But if the Saints thought Hill was their post-Brees future, they've gotten a rude wake-up call over the previous two weeks.
Verdict: Sell
There's no reason to sugarcoat it: The Raiders stunk up the place in their Week 12 blowout loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
The Raiders turned the ball over five times and looked like a far cry from a playoff team. The loss dropped them to ninth in the AFC standings, leaving them with a big hill to climb to get back to the postseason.
You can't excuse away a 43-6 loss, but West Coast teams traveling east often put up stinkers. Remember last year's loss to the New York Jets that sent the Raiders spiraling out of contention? Of course you do.
While the loss to the Falcons was embarrassing and knocked them down in the standings, the Raiders still control their destiny. Up next is a date with the 0-11 Jets. That's a must-win or else it is curtains.
Assuming a win that gets them to 7-5, the Raiders will close with games against the Chargers, Dolphins, Colts and Broncos.
Two of those teams, the Colts and Dolphins, are ahead of the Raiders in the standings. Win those two and split the division games and you're 10-6 with the tiebreaker over three of the four teams -- Colts, Dolphins and Browns -- who you are fighting for a playoff spot.
The Raiders' path to the playoffs still is in front of them, but they can't let the loss to the Falcons nuke their season the way the 2019 loss to the Jets did.
Verdict: Sell
Look, Brady's not in New England anymore, but that's exactly what he wanted. You think he didn't know what he was getting into running an entirely different offense that focuses more on vertical passing then it does on short and intermediate throws? You think he didn't know Arians had a different style of doing things than Bill Belichick? Of course he did.
The fact is that the COVID-19 pandemic robbed Brady and the Bucs of a full offseason to get to know each other. The offensive chemistry has been a work in progress. It's been hampered by injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. It took Rob Gronkowski time to get back to NFL speed and Antonio Brown has been on the field for only four games.
They've had games where they've looked fantastic and others where they have struggled.
It's easy to see the beating the Saints gave them or their early struggles against the Chiefs and think that Brady and Arians are never going to work out. But they are still learning each other. Brady and his receivers still are getting on the same page as evidenced by the conversation Brady and Evans had about where to be on the hot route after Brady's second interception against Kansas City.
It's clear the Bucs still are evolving. They might not reach their peak this year, but Brady and Arians should have a full offseason together to keep getting better.
Don't give up on the Brady-Arians pairing just yet.
Verdict: Buy
Don't look now, but the 49ers are still alive at 5-6 and getting healthier.
With the Cardinals and Bucs sliding, the 49ers enter December with a puncher's chance at a playoff berth. The return of Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert and Richard Sherman helped spark them to a win over the Los Angeles Rams. A strong finish to the season could see them sneak into the playoffs as the final wild-card team.
Coach Kyle Shanahan has said he's hopeful tight end George Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo could return toward the end of the season, so if the 49ers can rack up the wins over the next few weeks, they could get Kittle and Garoppolo back for the season-closing games against the Cardinals and Seahawks.
If the 49ers can finish the season 4-1 and grab the No. 7 seed at 9-7 with a relatively healthy roster, that would be a horrible reward for whichever team earns the No. 2 seed.
With Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, a healthy 49ers team would be more than capable of traveling to Green Bay, New Orleans or Seattle and springing an upset in the Wild Card Round and making an unexpected playoff run.
Now, if Garoppolo and Kittle can't return, this is a moot point.
But there should be little doubt that the NFC contenders would much rather face the Cardinals or Rams in the first round than see a finally healthy 49ers team across from them.
