Aside from where Tua Tagovailoa will be taken, the talk of the 2020 NFL Draft has been all about the receivers. Many believe this is the deepest class at the position in ages.
Receivers like Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb, along with Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs from Alabama are expected to go early in the draft. Fans of the 49ers and Raiders alike are frothing at the mouth for the chance to add one of those prospects from the talented trio, when Las Vegas and San Francisco are on the clock at Nos. 12 and 13 respectively.
But should they? Maybe not.
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The last time three receivers were taken within the top 20 picks of the draft was 2017 when Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross were selected with the Nos. 5, 7 and 9 picks. Through three years, none of those players are stars. Not even close.
There have been 11 receivers taken in the first round and 19 in the second in the last four drafts. NBC Sports' Peter King showed in his latest Football Morning in America how second-round receivers have been far more successful than those selected in the first round since 2016.
King totaled the 30 combined seasons of the first-round receivers and plotted the average season, and then did the same with the 40 combined seasons of second-round wideouts. Here's what he found:
Average season of 1st-round WRs, 2016-19: 32.8 receptions, 450.1 yards, 13.7 yards per catch
Average season of 2nd-round WRs, 2016-19: 52.8 receptions, 681.8 yards, 12.9 yards per catch
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That's quite the difference. There's a problem for the 49ers and Raiders, though. Neither team owns a second-round pick right now. That also could easily change.
The 49ers own two first-round picks -- Nos. 13 and 31 -- and general manager John Lynch admitted Monday that they're taking calls on possibly trading either pick. In a perfect world, they would keep their top pick and trade No. 31 to get into the second round.
Meanwhile, the Raiders also have two first-round picks -- Nos. 12 and 19. But there's a chance they could keep both picks and still find a way into the second round. The Silver and Black have three third-round picks, and could package one or two of those to move up into Round 2.
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Both the 49ers and Raiders could focus on defense early and then looking to add a receiver after trading into the second round. Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs are seen as the cream of the crop, however, there should still be plenty of talent left at the start of Day 2. Receivers like Michael Pittman Jr., Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool and Brandon Aiyuk all could be available after the first round ends.
That's a plethora of players who can make an early impact. Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs could certrainly be generational talents, but as recent history shows, the draft is a crapshoot.
It's far from a perfect formula.
Programming note: Don't miss NBC Sports Bay Area's coverage of the 2020 NFL Draft! Stream "NBC Sports On the Clock: NFL Mock Draft" on the MyTeams app and on NBCSportsBayArea.com on Wednesday at 2 p.m. to get all of the latest information on the 49ers and Raiders.