Grading four hypothetical 49ers trade packages for Watson
What is the price to acquire a generational quarterback who is just entering his prime?That's a question many teams now are pondering in the wake of Thursday's reports that Deshaun Watson is upset with how the Houston Texans are handling their hiring process for both general manager and head coach. Should Watson ask for a trade, which Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio suggested could be in the cards, what is the proper price to pay for a rare talent like Watson?I'll start by saying this: Almost any hypothetical package that could be cooked up for Watson isn't good enough. He's 25 years old, on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory and is set up to be one of the marquee quarterbacks for the next decade. I can't put a price on that, and I doubt the Texans will even entertain the idea of dealing him. That's a decision that will take years for a franchise to recover from no matter what they get in return.The fact is that quarterbacks like Watson are hard to find. The Chicago Bears have been searching for a franchise quarterback for almost 40 years. The 49ers have been looking for one since Steve Young retired.But if Watson does become available, there's no question the 49ers will be among the top teams looking to swing a deal for the star signal-caller.With that in mind, I looked at four potential trade packages the 49ers could offer for Watson and graded them for both teams.So let's (hypothetically) play: Deal or no deal?
49ers get: Deshaun Watson, 2022 third-round pick
Texans get: Nick Bosa, 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick
No, I haven't forgotten how good Nick Bosa is. He had a historic rookie season and is one his way to being one of the best edge rushers in the NFL.
But isn't easier to find edge rushers than generational quarterbacks? Watson already is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory and is just entering his prime at 25. Franchises go decades without having a transcendent talent like Watson and often miss their championship window due to subpar QB play.
The Texans need to restock their cupboard. This trade gives them a lynchpin on defense to replace the aging J.J. Watt and two first-round picks. Parting with the No. 12 pick in 2021 will hurt, but it's worth the price to get Watson, who will be one of the faces of the NFL for the next 10 years.
The 49ers won't want to part with Bosa, but could the Texans say no if he's on the table along with draft capital?
Grade for 49ers: B-plus
Grade for Texans: B-minus
49ers get: Deshaun Watson, 2022 fourth-round pick
Texans get: Fred Warner, 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick
Fred Warner is one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL. He also only has one year left on his rookie contract, which means the Texans would be on the hook for what is expected to be a lucrative extension soon. That forces the 49ers to throw in a third-first round pick. But with Watson under center, the 49ers should contend for titles annually, therefore making the 2022 and 2024 picks late first-rounders which is easier to stomach losing.
Look, in my opinion, whatever a team gives up for Watson if he's even traded, isn't enough. The guy is a rare talent who dragged Bill O'Brien to the playoffs in 2018 and '19. He'd be a perennial MVP candidate with Kyle Shanahan, and that's not debatable.
Middle linebackers as good as Warner are hard to come by. But quarterback is the most important position in sports, and Watson is a top-five QB who's only getting better.
The Texans get a defensive star out of this and three first-round picks, while the 49ers get a star and get to keep Bosa.
Grade for 49ers: B-plus
Grade for Texans: B
49ers get: Deshaun Watson, 2022 third-round pick
Texans get: Jimmy Garoppolo, 2021 first-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2024 first-round pick
This deal allows the Texans to get both draft capital and a competent starting quarterback to run their team. Garoppolo is an above-average starter who can win games when things are properly constructed around him.
The trade also gives the Texans a boatload of much-needed draft capital.
The 49ers get the QB they've been looking for and are left with only $2.8 million in dead cap space after trading Garoppolo.
Grade for 49ers: A
Grade for Texans: B
49ers get: Deshaun Watson
Texans get: 2021 first-round pick, 2021 second-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick
Look, if a team is going to trade a star QB in his prime like Watson, the haul is going to have to be tremendous. Think about this: Jay Cutler (freaking Jay Cutler) fetched two first-round picks.
Well, when you put it that way, Watson is worth more than Cutler. Probably way more.
Now, four first-round picks is undoubtedly more than the 49ers, who are trying to replenish draft capital would want to give up. But if they truly believe the championship window is open now and only the QB position is holding them back, I'd sell it all for Watson. He's under contract for the next four seasons, so presumably all of those picks should be in the back half of the first round.
And if you win one Super Bowl then it's all worth it. Draft picks are often overvalued because of what they theoretically can become. We know exactly what Watson is and he would only get better when paired with Shanahan.
Grade for 49ers: A-minus
Grade for Texans: B-plus
