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The Champions League round of 16 is officially underway and it’s not without its drama. Probably a surprise to few, Manchester City dominated Sporting 5-0. PSG handled business and won their opening match 1-nil. Liverpool shocked Inter with a 2-nil road win. Probably the biggest surprise of the first day was Salzburg hanging tough with the Germain giants, Bayern Munich. This week we have four more matches to complete the round of 16. Here’s a look at two bets that I found on PointsBet Sportsbook.
Villarreal vs Juventus (Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Villarreal (+140) | Draw (+220) | Juventus (+200)
Juventus head to Villarreal without one of their biggest offensive weapons in Paulo Dybala. The Argentinian will be sidelined with a thigh injury. On the other side of the park, Villarreal’s biggest offensive weapon, Gerard Moreno will also be out due to injury. Had both been fit and available, this would’ve been a multiple unit play for me. I am backing both teams to score (-115).
Why Juventus will score:
The visitors come into this weekend’s fixtures as one of Italy’s hottest teams. Max Allegri came in and seemingly turned the season around. They are now fourth on the table and a Champions League berth for next season is not out of the realm of possibilities. They are down some offensive firepower in Federico Chiesa and Dybala, but still have one of their best weapons available in their January signing, Dusan Vlahovic. The former Fiorentina man provides Juventus with something they were missing, a true number nine who is a threat to score at any moment. Their backline with the exception of Giorgio Chiellini, is also healthy now. This should allow Juan Cuadrado to play more forward. Him positioned next to Weston McKinnie, Manuel Locatelli, and/or Denis Zakaria, provide them with the speed and offensive mentality Allegri wants in a midfield.
Despite being one of the better defensive clubs in La Liga. Villarreal can get scored on. They have a few home clean sheets on the season that worry me, but others that keep me hopeful. Their clean sheet against Real Madrid for example. While keeping a clean sheet, they had an xGA of over two goals. They allow one goal per home match with an xGA of 1.17. It likely won’t be pretty, but they should find the back of the net against Villarreal.
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Why Villarreal will score:
Unai Emery and the Yellow Submarine are without a doubt hungry to prove they can not only have success in Europa but have success in Champions League as well. They are without Moreno, but Arnaut Danjuma has the quality to provide offensive support in his absence. He had a hat trick this past weekend and a brace in their last Champions League fixture with Atalanta. Villarreal see a goal boost while playing at home. They go from scoring 1.08 goals per match on the road to 2.23. Their xG goes from 1.4 to 1.84. Playing at home in front of that crowd has one of the highest impacts in La Liga. Juventus will feel them when they arrive.
Mentioning Juventus’ improvements means something, but defensively, they have a long way to go. They went from an average xGA of 1.3 to about 0.98 after November 1st, the time in which it took Allegri to implement his brand of football. Despite their improvements, they still aren’t at the level you’d expect from a championship caliber team. It’s not necessarily the tactics as much as it’s the players. Hard to trust a backline that does not play as one cohesive unit. A unit who I don’t mind attacking, and I’d expect Villarreal to do the same.
Benfica vs Ajax (Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Benfica (+320) | Draw (+280) | Ajax (-125)
I am backing Ajax moneyline (-125) for two units. This line will likely be the most popular line of the round of 16. That’s for good reason. This might be one of the best constructed Ajax teams we’ve seen in quite some time. They are absolutely dominating the Eredivisie. A league that has teams such as PSV, Feyenoord, and AZ Alkmaar. They have conceded just five goals on the season while scoring 70. Yes, they have a goal differential of +65. In 23 domestic matches they have won 18 and have an x GA of 0.84. While we can praise the stout defense of Ajax, it’s important to shoutout the construction of the attack. Steven Berghuis, Dusan Tadic, Antony, and Sébastien Haller are all capable of scoring and together they play so fluid and free.
Why Ajax? Why are they so dominant? I would say largely in part to the high press they play. The put pressure higher on the pitch and play with a very high defensive line. Many teams do it, not many do it as well as Ajax. Largely because of the speed they have at each position and the timing of when they implement pressing traps. Teams often struggle against this tactic, especially when implemented well.
If we’re being honest, Benfica might be the worst team left in the round of 16. That’s not necessarily a knock on the hosts, but more so highlighting the good Fortune they have of being in this round at all. They are the third best team in Liga NOS and aren’t equipped to handle a high press. All season their defense has been the problem. Allowing 22 goals at this point of the season is not the defensive quality Nelson Verissimo demands of his club. Benfica are overmatched and the score line at the end of the night should prove that.
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