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| Corbin Burnes | ARI - SP | ||||||||||||
| Throws: R | Age: 30 | Mixed 5x5: $21 | NL 5x5: $25 | |||||||||||
| 2024: Started: 32 Relieved: 0 | Mixed 2026: $18 | 2027: $13 | ||||||||||||
| Outlook: Burnes received Cy Young votes for a fifth straight season in 2024 and made 32 starts for a third straight year, all while showing the best velocity of his career. Still, there’s one blindingly obvious concern here as he begins his Diamondbacks career; his strikeout rate has plummeted from 36% in 2021 to 30%, 26% and 23% the last three years. The changing shape of his cutter seems to be the biggest culprit, though he’s also getting fewer missed swings with his curve and changeup; only his slider is generating whiffs like it used to, which is probably why he started using it more last year. Still, the lack of strikeouts hasn’t turned into a real problem yet. Burnes’ cutter continues to produce mostly soft contact; of the 58 pitchers to qualify for the ERA title last year, he had the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate. And since his arm strength obviously hasn’t gone anywhere -- he averaged 97 mph with the cutter last year -- it might be that a pretty simple tweak could lead to him reclaiming some of those lost strikeouts. He’ll have another quality defense backing him in Arizona, and while Chase Field does yield plenty of doubles and triples, it suppresses homers. His fantasy ceiling appears lower than it has in some time, but he can’t slip too far in drafts. | |||||||||||||
