If it can happen to Josh Allen — that beautifully chaotic gunslinger — it can happen to anyone.
With no regard for his QBR, Allen was once among the NFL’s most aggressive downfield passers. In 2018, as a doe-eyed, utterly reckless rookie, Allen led the league with a 19.7 percent deep ball rate — meaning roughly one in every five Allen passes traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
In 2019, that rate shrunk to 14.8 percent. It fell to 12.5 percent in 2020 and 11.8 percent in 2021. After a brief spike in 2022, Allen’s downfield passing rate was 13 percent in 2023. Allen, like every NFL quarterback over the few seasons, has seen a heavy dose of so-called shell coverages: Two safeties stationed well off the line of scrimmage, stubbornly refusing to give up the big play to the cannon-armed Bills quarterback.
Allen has responded in kind. His average depth of target (aDOT) has dropped in all six of his NFL seasons and his rate of screen passes has climbed since his rookie campaign. In 2023, he completed a whopping 50 more passes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage than he did in 2022, according to an analysis by the Buffalo News’ Mark Gaughan. Allen completed 29 passes for 962 yards on attempts of over 20 yards, way down from 41 completions for 1,386 yards in 2022.
Bills coaches before the 2023 season all but begged Allen to succumb to the safe throws, to not get impatient against shell coverage, to become, in short, Checkdown Charlie.
The NFL is now a league of Checkdown Charlies, quarterbacks with frightening arm strength and pinpoint accuracy who have no choice but to take what the defense gives them. These QBs and their coaching staffs are content — or maybe resigned — to move the ball one seven-yard completion at a time. It’s still more efficient than the run game (everything is) but the game’s best passers have made adjustments that change the nature of their statistical production, and those of their pass catchers.
The Rise Of Two High Safeties has major repercussions for fantasy football purposes. This is hardly news to those who grind football stats and metrics year-round and draft their best ball and season-long teams accordingly. But it is worth a deep dive into what, exactly, all these check downs mean for offenses and players headed into 2024.
How QBs Handle Two-High Looks
Stats courtesy of Fantasy Points
Will Levis
The Tennessee rookie looked at two-high coverages and loudly proclaimed he ain’t reading all that. Levis, with his wickedly strong arm, launched passes downfield at a league-leading rate against shell coverage looks in 2023. That worked out quite well for DeAndre Hopkins, who saw 49 percent of the Titans’ targets of over 20 yards and led the team with 430 receiving yards on those looks.
It’s never easy to tell where a quarterback starts and an offensive scheme ends. Could new Titans head coach Brian Callahan reign in Levis in 2024 and limit his deep shots into cover two? Yes, he could. Will Levis continue being hyper aggressive against coverages designed to discourage downfield attempts? Also yes.
Levis’ aggressiveness against shell looks could conceivably be good for fledgling third-year WR Treylon Burks, who in 2023 saw 45 percent of his targets come on downfield looks from Tennessee quarterbacks. Burks led the 2023 Titans with 18 intended air yards per target. Levis’ refusal to read all that could be a boon for Burks in 2024.
Josh Allen
Back to Allen. He wasn’t exactly timid against two high safety coverages in 2023; his downfield passing rate was fifth highest among 35 qualifying quarterbacks. File that away for 2024 if (or when) the Bills acquire a legit downfield threat while Stefon Diggs morphs into a possession receiver.
Allen’s aforementioned increase in short throws could be tremendous for Dalton Kincaid after his PPR scam rookie campaign in which 75 percent of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line. That’s the good stuff. We like that as fantasy heads. Kincaid’s 6.3 air yards per target ranked 33rd among tight ends who saw at least 20 targets last season.
Jordan Love
The next in a never-ending line of legendary Green Bay quarterbacks (sorry to Bears fans) was very much willing to grip it and rip it into two high safety coverages last season.
Love wasn’t necessarily good on downfield shots against shell looks -- he ranked 26th out of 35 qualifying QBs in catchable ball rate against two high -- but that doesn’t matter nearly as much as his willingness to take a chance down the field in this era of coaches worshiping at the altar of expected points added. Obviously this is a positive development for the speedy Christian Watson. In 2023, Watson’s 15.3 intended air yards per target led the Packers.
Love’s 269 drop backs facing two-high safeties ranked 13th among qualifying QBs. Perhaps defenses will respond to Love’s late-season heater with more shell looks in hopes of forcing him to follow the lead of every other elite NFL quarterback to dink and dunk to victory. Here’s to hoping Love stays aggressive in 2024.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts last season saw a slight dip in downfield passing rate — from 12.2 percent in 2022 to 11.8 percent in 2023 — but took a hit in efficiency on those attempts. His yards per attempt on throws of at least 20 yards downfield dropped from 14.7 in 2022 to 12.5 in 2023 (on a side note, the Eagles seemed to get away from middle-of-the-field passing in their disastrous 2023 season; Hurts’ intermediate MOF rate fell from 8 percent in ‘22 to 5.8 percent).
Probably you won’t be stunned to learn Hurts struggled against shell coverages in a season that saw him struggle with some kind of undisclosed knee issue. Hurts ranked 16th out of 35 QBs in yards per attempt against two high safeties and 19th in adjusted net yards per attempt.
Hurts’ deficiencies on downfield throws impacted DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown in equal measure, as Brown and Smith had almost identical air yards per target. That a mere six quarterbacks had a higher downfield passing rate against shell looks should mean Brown and Smith will at least have a chance next season to deliver splash plays that were sorely lacking in 2023.
Stats courtesy of Fantasy Points
Joe Burrow
Burrow going Full Checkdown Charlie in 2023 is nothing new. His myriad injuries probably had nothing to do with it considering Burrow ranked 38th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks in downfield passing rate in 2022, the year defenses went all in on two-high looks against the league’s most prolific passers.
It’s not as if Burrow is incapable of hitting deep throws. In 2021 he was tenth in downfield passing rate; only three QBs had more yardage on deep shots. Burrow’s 6.9 aDOT in 2023 represented a steep fall from his pre-2023 career mark of 8.2. In fact, his aDOT has fallen in each of his four NFL seasons. Probably this is the new norm for Burrow and the Bengals offense since defenses deployed two high safeties on a whopping 53 percent of Burrow’s drop backs last season.
ESPN’s Ben Baby, who covers the Bengals, said the 2024 season will likely be more of the same with opposing defenses protecting against the deep ball at all costs and Burrow doing what it takes to move the ball, one short throw at a time.
“Burrow’s superpowers, as the staff likes to describe them, are his decision-making and processing,” Baby told me. “He’s not going to force a ball into a two-high look. Taking the check down has also been a point of emphasis dating back to last season. I can’t see that changing until defenses start to commit more bodies to the box to stop the run.”
Burrow’s propensity to check down is troubling for Tee Higgins, whose air yards per target (12.6) in 2023 was well above Ja’Marr Chase (8.5). Chase last season saw 58 percent of his targets behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line. That’s some tasty usage in an offense run by a quarterback content to check down over and over again against two high safeties. Higgins, if he remains with the Bengals this offseason, will have a far more volatile statistical profile than his short target-gobbling teammate.
A quick note: Jake Browning last year had a higher downfield passing rate against two-high looks than Burrow and led the NFL in completion rate over expected against those coverages. Browning also happened to best Burrow in drop back success rate and EPA per drop back. I’m only reporting the facts, folks.
Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes in 2023 somehow managed to post a lower overall deep ball rate than Burrow. This is where you remind me that Kansas City has the single worst wide receiver room in the NFL. And you might have a point. Hopefully the Chiefs address this glaring issue on their way to a three-peat.
Chiefs opponents using two high safeties at a high rate means the Travis Kelce PPR gravy train could conceivably roll on in 2024 even as Kelce slows down — a reality reflected in a variety of efficiency metrics. Kelce’s aDOT, which was over 9 in 2020 and 2021 and had fallen to 7.6 in 2022, dropped all the way to 6.9 in 2023 — a career low.
A heavy dose of two high looks has effectively turned Mahomes into a dink-and-dunk game manager. In 2023, Mahomes’ adjusted net yards per attempt (5.45) against those looks ranked 26th out of 34 qualifying QBs, just below Ryan Tannehill and Easton Stick. Mahomes’ intended air yards per pass has plummeted from 9.1 in the halcyon days of 2018 to 6.4 in 2023.
Nearly 65 percent of Mahomes’ pass attempts last season were behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards of the line, a significant increase over his short-throw rates before the two-high onslaught of 2022. It’s a problem for his fantasy profile even as he becomes the greatest to ever play.
Justin Fields
Fields was miserable against two-high defenses, finishing the 2023 season as one of five quarterbacks with a net adjusted yards per attempt below 5 against such looks. His 17 percent check down rate was third among all qualifying quarterbacks facing two high safeties. Fields seemed content not challenging two high coverages.
Between those numbers and Fields’ regression on intermediate throws in 2023, there’s little — if any — indication he can suddenly turn into a reliable NFL passer entering his fourth season. Wherever he lands in the coming months, Fields will represent a major hurdle for his pass catchers’ fantasy prospects — unless, of course, a pass catcher dominates targets and air yards the way DJ Moore did last season in Chicago.
Jared Goff
It doesn’t really matter for Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta that Goff outright refuses to challenge two high safety looks in the balanced Detroit offense. St. Brown’s air yards per target was among the lowest in the NFL last season among wideouts who had at least 25 targets and LaPorta did most of his damage on quick-hitting underneath receptions.
Lions opponents don’t seem too terribly frightened of Goff beating them over the top, as Goff faced two high looks on just 43 percent of his drop backs last season. All these numbers add up to an exceedingly narrow path to success for downfield burner Jameson Williams until the Goff era is over in Detroit. For better or worse, that won’t be anytime soon.