Even with the status of their best player in doubt, the Bruins will surely win their first-round series against the Leafs. It will probably happen Saturday.
Such a thought would have been hard to believe heading into the series, but by now we've seen enough to know where things stand: Toronto's defense is exploitable and its stars aren't doing enough to make up for it.
Consider Game 4. The Leafs outplayed the B's, who were sloppy and missing Patrice Bergeron, for much of the night. Still, all it took was one odd-man rush in a period that saw them spend the entire time in their zone to turn the tide.
BRUINS 3, MAPLE LEADS 1
The B's went the whole night without a power play. In fact, there was just one penalty the whole game.
But that suited the Bruins, as they got even-strength goals from Torey Krug, Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, have just one even-strength goal combined this series from Auston Matthews, William Nylander and James van Riemsdyk.
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The question now becomes whether those guys will get going with elimination looming. Lord knows JVR can do it against the Bruins. But even if they do, they'll have to do it in a building that saw Boston score 12 goals over Games 1 and 2.
While Toronto's stars continue to cool, Boston got a very welcome sight Thursday with David Krejci creating DeBrusk's goal. Krejci, who scored goals in Games 1 and 2, had a quiet showing in Game 3. With Bergeron's status up in the air, the Bruins could use a productive Krejci.
The Leafs got back in the series when it shifted to Toronto for Game 3. There, Mike Babcock used last change to get Bergeron's line with Marchand and Pastrnak away from Matthews. The line of Tomas Plekanec between Mitch Marner and Patrick Marleau not only quieted Boston's top line, but scored a pair of goals against it.
That was not sustainable, as the Bergeron line (with Riley Nash skating in place of the injured Bergeron) scored twice against Plekanec and Co. while allowing one goal in Game 4. Now that the series is headed back to Boston, Marchand and Pastrnak likely won't face Plekanec in Game 5.
The fact that the Bruins came back from Toronto up 3-1 means that they can put away the series when Babcock won't have last change, even though he'll have Nazem Kadri back. Kadri will be returning from a three-game suspension for being an idiot to Tommy Wingels' face.
If Bergeron's injury is something he might play through later in the playoffs, the B's should roll the dice and put him in Saturday. Doing so could end the series and give Bergeron plenty of time to rest while teams wait for the second round to begin.
MORE ON BERGERON
Should Bergeron be unable to go, Bruce Cassidy should still be able to play matchups to his favor. Pastrnak and Marchand with Nash should still be capable of quieting Matthews' line while continuing to generate offense for Boston. Matthews does not defend nearly as well as Plekanec.
The Leafs have a lot to figure out as they try to get Matthews and Nylander going. JVR's only contributions have come on the power play. It would be one hell of a switch to flip if those guys finally became their game-breaking selves.
Game 4 was Toronto's chance. Saturday might bring its final chance. I wouldn't be too confident if I were a Leafs fan.